The election is over. Enjoy the quiet while it lasts. But prepare for the noise.

The 2028 presidential campaign begins in earnest today. For members of Congress, corporate executives and advocacy group leaders, that means preparing for questions they may have little interest in answering.

The invisible primary—the positioning, relationship building and quiet maneuvering that precedes a presidential campaign—is about to become much more visible. Potential candidates will compete for attention, donors and endorsements. One way to distinguish themselves will be to take positions that force everyone else to respond.

During the 2016 Republican primary, Donald Trump could send a tweet and Republican members of Congress would spend the day being asked about it. Did they agree? Did they condemn it? Would they still support him?

Sometimes it wasn’t even a campaign position. It was a comment made years before the candidate entered the race. All of it was fair game for a press corps eager to break news, and an opening for the Three Cs of Political Journalism: change, conflict and controversy.

Businesses and trade associations were not immune. A candidate’s statement could suddenly create questions about an organization’s policies, political contributions or leadership. Having no involvement in the original controversy offered little protection from being pulled into it.

That experience should inform preparations for 2028. This time, the pressure will come from both parties.

On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are obvious figures to watch. Trump’s preference will carry substantial weight, and anyone considering a campaign will have to account for it. I would also leave room for a candidate betting that Republican voters want a return to something resembling normalcy.

But the Republican contest will be only part of the story.

Democrats face an unsettled field and a competition over the direction of their party. I expect several candidates from the burgeoning Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) wing, or candidates advancing positions once considered fringe, to seek a place in that debate. Their proposals will generate questions for other candidates, Democratic members of Congress, and the businesses and associations affected by them. And for Democrats, it's not just their candidates, but also some of their new colleagues. Republican members of Congress will join the press in forcing questions about these new members' positions.

Do you support that proposal? Do you agree with that statement? Is your industry doing what the candidate alleges? Will you support the nominee if that person wins?

Candidates don’t have to win the nomination to force very uncomfortable questions. 

Count on it. Prepare for it. Don’t hope that it won’t happen.

These candidates need enough attention to make their competitors respond. Once that happens, a proposal can become a test of loyalty, a subject for congressional hearings, or a question waiting for a corporate executive at the next interview.

An organization that planned to talk about jobs, investment or its legislative priorities may instead spend its time explaining where it stands in someone else’s campaign.

The preparation should begin before that first call.

Leaders need to understand which issues could pull their organizations into the contest. They should examine whether their public positions, political contributions and business decisions tell a consistent story—and be prepared to explain the differences where they don’t.

They also need to decide when to engage. 

Not every provocative statement requires a response

. But deciding to stay quiet should involve judgment about the organization’s interests and responsibilities, as well as the costs of doing so. It should not be the default just because nobody anticipated the question.

The same preparation applies to the person answering. A carefully approved statement has limited value if an executive cannot handle the obvious follow-up. Members of Congress know this well: the first question is often simply the entrance to the conversation a reporter actually wants to have.

Experienced communications counsel helps organizations anticipate that conversation, make decisions before the pressure arrives, and keep their own priorities in view when the campaign threatens to consume the day.

We don’t yet know who will win either nomination. We know enough about how these contests work to begin preparing.

You may have no intention of joining the presidential primary. That doesn’t mean you get to stay out of it.

The Next Campaign Starts Now. So Do the Questions.

Presidential Job Approval Rating Trends: Boring

 shows that the President’s job approval rating has remained somewhat boring for several months. According to the latest figures, there has been no significant change since February, with approval ratings holding steady at either 45 or 46 percent across the past four polls since April. At the beginning of the year, the rating stood at 49 percent and has since edged down to 45 percent, which is just beyond the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

While approval ratings have been consistent, the President’s disapproval rating has shown a gradual increase—rising from 41 percent in January to 47 percent currently.

Though the accompanying chart may exaggerate the shifts, it effectively illustrates that, particularly since April when approval and disapproval numbers converged, there have been no remarkable developments in the overall trend.

The RealClearPolitics polling average also shows the President’s approval rating since April to be in a narrow band between 45 and 48 percent with disapproval between 49 and 52 percent.

Trump Job Approval Rating Trends: Boring

Polls continue to show that Americans are wary of tariffs and are not convinced that they’ll work. But like everything else, these results are highly polarized. Republicans continue to give the President plenty of leeway to show the efficacy of the tariffs. Republicans are likely to believe in the benefits of tariffs and believe they will deliver jobs over time. Democrats and Independents are in a completely different place. Republican beliefs about the benefits of tariffs and their tolerance for disruption as a result are keeping the polling numbers for tariffs out of the basement. And are no doubt giving the President sufficient support for continuing the tariffs—at least for now.

For example, 85 percent of Republicans believe that tariffs are at least somewhat likely to result in manufacturing jobs being created in the U.S. (including 56 percent who say that outcome is “very likely”). But Democrats believe the opposite: 79 percent doubt that tariffs will lead to increased U.S. manufacturing jobs.

Another huge difference between the parties is costs. Only a third of Republicans (36%) believe tariffs will lead to increased costs on the products they buy. But a nearly all Democrats (92%) see higher costs as a result of tariffs.

Republicans also broadly agree that the tariffs will “bring more money into the U.S. than it ends up paying in tariffs to other countries” in both the short term (63%) and the long run (77%).Democrats, not surprisingly, disagree—a lot. Only four percent agree they will bring in more than we pay out in the short term, rising only to six percent in the long run.

w up in the pain tolerances. Two thirds of Republicans are willing to accept disruptions to the U.S. economy resulting from tariffs of at least a year, while only 29 percent of Democrats agree.

Republican support (and opposition from Democrats) has been consistent for months. There’s not guarantee of stability in these numbers, but for now, the President seems to have what he needs from his base to continue his tariff campaign. But even a small collapse in Republican support will lead to abysmal overall polling numbers and will be difficult to reverse.

Trump Job Approval Rating Trends: Boring

Presidential Job Approval Rating Trends: Boring

Disapproval Ratings

Visualizing the Trends

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